Browse documentation

Research

Backtest crypto trading strategies without fooling yourself

Use built-in and custom strategies, realistic fills, professional metrics, held-out data and walk-forward tests in Basis.

12 min readUpdated 2026-08-224 sections

Start with causal rules and explicit execution

A valid backtest computes each signal from information available at that moment and applies a declared fill model. Basis strategies expose entries, exits, stops and metrics on the chart so the path can be inspected rather than trusted as one final number.

  • No future-bar inputs or centered calculations.
  • Signal timing separated from fill timing.
  • Fees, slippage and position sizing included in the scenario.
  • Trades and chart markers available for manual inspection.

Read a metric set, not one headline number

MetricWhy it matters
Net returnOutcome, but sensitive to size and period
Sharpe / risk-adjusted returnReturn relative to variability
Maximum drawdownObserved capital and psychological pressure
Profit factorGross win relative to gross loss
ExpectancyAverage payoff per trade
Trade countWhether the sample can support the conclusion
ExposureHow much time and capital the strategy actually used

Separate discovery from evaluation

  1. 01

    Define the hypothesis

    Write why the rule could work before optimizing parameters.

  2. 02

    Choose a training period

    Use it to develop and reject variants.

  3. 03

    Lock the rule

    Stop changing it before opening held-out data.

  4. 04

    Evaluate out of sample

    Judge degradation, trade count and regime sensitivity.

  5. 05

    Walk forward

    Repeat train/test windows to see whether ranking persists through time.

Reject beautiful tests with weak evidence

  • Very few trades or one exceptional winner.
  • Large performance drop after realistic fees.
  • One exact parameter works while nearby values fail.
  • All profit comes from one symbol or regime.
  • Hundreds of trials were searched but not reported.
  • The held-out period changes the sign of expectancy.

Important

Backtesting estimates historical behavior under assumptions. It does not prove future profitability.